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悲观情绪充分释放后

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发表于 2017-5-9 14:00:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

    上周螺纹钢期货大幅走低,主力1710合约上周四一度触及跌停板,并带动黑色产业链全线走弱。市场对系统性风险担忧升级是市场暴跌的主要推手:国际方面,加拿大最大房地产信贷公司面临巨大危机,市场担忧全球系统性风险出现;国内方面,近期金融行业监管趋严,去杠杆全面推进,资金持续紧张,股债均出现连续下跌,波及商品市场。

    但经历上周大跌后,市场悲观情绪已经充分释放。从螺纹钢市场来看,目前的基本面依然良好,并没有出现非常尖锐的供需矛盾。虽然粗钢产量不断提升,但需求并没有出现明显走弱的迹象,下游工地采购依然维持在较高的水平,社会库存在假期后的超预期下降也从侧面印证目前需求较为强劲。总体上,我们认为,在恐慌情绪充分释放后,钢价的修复性反弹或将延续。


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发表于 2018-5-8 15:54:42 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2018-5-26 09:02:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2018-5-26 09:27:18 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2018-5-26 12:37:11 | 显示全部楼层
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